Open seat; Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
Candidates
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Democrat Former state representative, led the primary Running mate: Zac Johnson
- Bernadette Wilson Republican Anchorage businesswoman, Trump-endorsed Running mate: Mike Shower
- Dave Bronson Republican Former Anchorage mayor Running mate: Josh Church
- Treg Taylor Republican Former attorney general Running mate: Candi English
- James Parkin Republican Running mate: Ramadhani Greer Registered write-in
Where the race stands
- Solid D
- Very Likely D
- Lean D
- Tilt D
- Toss-up
- Tilt R
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Very Likely R
- Solid R
- No race
Analysis
Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited, and the open seat is decided under Alaska's top-four system: the four leading tickets from an open primary advance to a ranked-choice general election, where last-place tickets are eliminated and their votes move to voters' next choices until one ticket has a majority. One Democrat faces three Republicans.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) spent 10 years in the state House representing a Trump-carried district around Sitka. He is running on stable, forward-funded school budgets, a retirement benefit to keep teachers, and making Hilcorp pay corporate income tax, and he holds a heavy fundraising lead. Bernadette Wilson (R), an Anchorage garbage-hauling business owner in her first run for office, is running on paying the dividend under the statutory formula, funding school programs that show results over more money, and a tighter spending cap. Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R) is campaigning on economic growth, infrastructure, housing, and protecting the dividend; former Attorney General Treg Taylor (R) is running on his public-safety record and on expanding mining, timber, and oil and gas.
President Trump endorsed Wilson on October 13, before a Wasilla rally, writing that Republicans should "unite behind Bernadette" and calling Bronson and Taylor "lesser" candidates. Bronson told reporters Trump's account of their talks was "different from mine," and both remain on the ballot. Bronson and Taylor said at the October 8 debate they would rank each other second and Wilson third, so the outcome likely turns on whether Republican voters rank all three GOP tickets. At the same Debate for the State, Kreiss-Tomkins pinned state gridlock on Dunleavy ("If you like the last eight years, you can get four more"), while Wilson mocked rivals for "singing Kumbaya." Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Lean Democratic; Pluribus News still calls it a Toss-up. The same ballot carries Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting and the open primary; Wilson is one of its sponsors, and a similar repeal failed by 737 votes in 2024.
The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.
Alaska governors since 1991
Republicans have held the office since 2018. The last Democrat was Tony Knowles (1994–2002).
Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.
- Elected 2018 (+7.0), reelected 2022 (+26.1)
- Elected 2014 (+2.2)
- Succeeded to office 2009, elected 2010 (+21.4), lost reelection 2014
- Elected 2006 (+7.4), resigned 2009
- Elected 2002 (+15.1), lost renomination 2006
- Elected 1994 (+0.2), reelected 1998 (+33.0)
- Elected 1990 (+8.0)