2026 governor races › California

California Governor Race 2026: Becerra vs. Hilton

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Solid DOpen seat

Open seat; Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is term-limited.

Candidates

Where the race stands

The RealClearPolling average has Becerra (D) 56.8, Hilton (R) 35.0 (Becerra +21.8, four polls). The latest Berkeley IGS poll had Becerra up 58 to 33 among likely voters, wider than its August poll. Polymarket gives Becerra about 96 percent, and Kalshi has Democrats at about 96 percent.
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Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
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  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
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Analysis

California is an open seat with Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited, and the succession looks set to stay in Democratic hands. Xavier Becerra (D) was U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary under Biden, California attorney general, and a 24-year congressman; he finished first in the top-two primary. Steve Hilton (R), a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron who hosted a Fox News show from 2017 to 2023, carries Trump’s endorsement. Becerra’s campaign leans on his experience and his “Tio Xavier” Mexican American roots, and he casts himself as a defender of voting access. At their only debate, on CNN, Hilton pitched eliminating state income tax on the first $150,000 earned, capping government fees on new homes at $50,000, and building “10 new cities”; Becerra said the plan would hand the wealthiest a large tax cut, promised to keep Wall Street investors from outbidding Californians for homes, and called for protecting workers from AI job losses. Both oppose Proposition 40, the one-time billionaire tax on the same ballot.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

California governors since 1991

Democrats have held the office since 2011. The last Republican was Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003–2011).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Gavin Newsom D · 2019–present · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+23.9), reelected 2022 (+18.4)
  2. Jerry Brown D · 2011–2019 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+12.9), reelected 2014 (+19.9)
  3. Arnold Schwarzenegger R · 2003–2011 · 2 terms
    Won 2003 recall (+17.1), reelected 2006 (+17.0)
  4. Gray Davis D · 1999–2003 · 2 terms
    Elected 1998 (+19.6), reelected 2002 (+4.9), recalled 2003
  5. Pete Wilson R · 1991–1999 · 2 terms
    Elected 1990 (+3.5), reelected 1994 (+14.6)
See the full California governor timeline and every election since 1954 →

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