Open seat; Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is term-limited.
Candidates
- Xavier Becerra Democrat Nominee, ex-U.S. HHS Secretary
- Steve Hilton Republican Nominee, ex-Fox News host
Where the race stands
- Solid D
- Very Likely D
- Lean D
- Tilt D
- Toss-up
- Tilt R
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Very Likely R
- Solid R
- No race
Analysis
California is an open seat with Gov. Gavin Newsom term-limited, and the succession looks set to stay in Democratic hands. Xavier Becerra (D) was U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary under Biden, California attorney general, and a 24-year congressman; he finished first in the top-two primary. Steve Hilton (R), a former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron who hosted a Fox News show from 2017 to 2023, carries Trump’s endorsement. Becerra’s campaign leans on his experience and his “Tio Xavier” Mexican American roots, and he casts himself as a defender of voting access. At their only debate, on CNN, Hilton pitched eliminating state income tax on the first $150,000 earned, capping government fees on new homes at $50,000, and building “10 new cities”; Becerra said the plan would hand the wealthiest a large tax cut, promised to keep Wall Street investors from outbidding Californians for homes, and called for protecting workers from AI job losses. Both oppose Proposition 40, the one-time billionaire tax on the same ballot.
The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.
California governors since 1991
Democrats have held the office since 2011. The last Republican was Arnold Schwarzenegger (2003–2011).
Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.
- Elected 2018 (+23.9), reelected 2022 (+18.4)
- Elected 2010 (+12.9), reelected 2014 (+19.9)
- Won 2003 recall (+17.1), reelected 2006 (+17.0)
- Elected 1998 (+19.6), reelected 2002 (+4.9), recalled 2003
- Elected 1990 (+3.5), reelected 1994 (+14.6)