Florida Governor Race 2026: Donalds vs. Jolly

With Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) term-limited, the race between Byron Donalds (R) and David Jolly (D) puts the DeSantis agenda on the ballot without DeSantis. Donalds is a Trump-endorsed congressman; Jolly is a former Republican congressman who became a Democrat before launching his campaign. Scott Eckhard Jewett (L) and five independents round out the ballot, with two qualified write-in candidates. Forecasters now largely agree on Lean Republican: the Cook Political Report moved it to Lean Republican on October 1, matching Sabato's Crystal Ball, while Pluribus News still rates it Likely Republican, and Decision Desk HQ, which had called it a toss-up, moved it to Lean Republican. The polling has not moved as far toward Jolly as the ratings: a Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 (Sept. 28 to Oct. 1) had Donalds ahead 48 to 41, with independents breaking toward Jolly 47 to 28.

Money is Donalds's biggest edge. He has raised more than $140 million to Jolly's roughly $20 million, and Jolly estimated he might have about $15 million for the final three weeks to Donalds's $30 million to $35 million. The Democratic Governors Association has put at least $10 million into each of seven other governor's races. As of mid-October, its Florida spending was limited to what it called investments in the Jolly campaign and the state party. Jolly argues that Donalds has plateaued despite the spending and pitches himself as a pragmatist who can work with a Republican Legislature.

Insurance and property taxes are the main policy divides. Jolly proposes a state-backed catastrophe fund that would take on a larger role in hurricane and wind coverage; Donalds opposes it and would instead change the existing Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. A WUFT fact-check found Jolly's plan likely won't lower premiums as promised, but also that it would not create the $1,000 "hurricane tax" Donalds claims. Jolly also promises a one-year data center moratorium, while Donalds now backs local control. On Amendment 3, which would raise the homestead property tax exemption, Donalds plans to vote for it, while Jolly opposes it but says he would respect the outcome. There will be no debates: Jolly declined all of them, citing what he called Donalds's bad faith, and Donalds said Jolly "has no substance." Donalds's running mate is former state Sen. Bryan Avila, and Jolly's is former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham.