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Illinois Governor Race 2026: Pritzker vs. Bailey

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Solid DIncumbent: JB Pritzker (D)

Gov. JB Pritzker (D) is seeking a third term.

Candidates

Where the race stands

Public polling is sparse. A Public Policy Polling survey (September 30 to October 1) paid for by Chicago News Weekly, whose few advertisers appear to include the governor's campaign (the campaign denied any role in the poll), had Pritzker (D) 54, Bailey (R) 34, and Corbett (I) 6. Markets give Pritzker about 97 percent on Polymarket and Democrats 96 percent on Kalshi.
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Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
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  • Toss-up
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Analysis

Gov. JB Pritzker (D) is heavily favored for a third term in a rematch with Darren Bailey (R), whom he beat by nearly 13 points in 2022. Governor and lieutenant governor run as a ticket: Pritzker's new running mate is Deputy Gov. Christian Mitchell, and Bailey's is Cook County GOP Chairman Aaron Del Mar. Pritzker points to ending the state grocery tax and doubling the child tax credit, and is running against President Trump's agenda. Bailey is running on repealing the SAFE-T Act, which ended cash bail, and on a 1 percent cap on property tax bills. He says he won't try to undo the state's abortion laws.

Pritzker has the money: he spent nearly $23.8 million from July through September to about $941,000 by Bailey's committee and entered October with about $44.4 million to Bailey's $482,000. In their only debate, on October 13 on WTTW, the two clashed over Trump, a new Bears stadium, and data centers, where Pritzker said there should be "no more data centers" unless they bring their own clean energy. Collin Corbett (I), a former Republican strategist, was left out of the debate based on poll numbers.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

Illinois governors since 1991

Democrats have held the office since 2019. The last Republican was Bruce Rauner (2015–2019).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. JB Pritzker D · 2019–present · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+15.7), reelected 2022 (+12.5)
  2. Bruce Rauner R · 2015–2019 · 1 term
    Elected 2014 (+3.9), lost reelection 2018
  3. Pat Quinn D · 2009–2015 · 1 term + partial
    Succeeded to office 2009, elected 2010 (+0.9), lost reelection 2014
  4. Rod Blagojevich D · 2003–2009 · 2 terms
    Elected 2002 (+7.1), reelected 2006 (+10.5), removed from office 2009
  5. George Ryan R · 1999–2003 · 1 term
    Elected 1998 (+3.6)
  6. Jim Edgar R · 1991–1999 · 2 terms
    Elected 1990 (+2.6), reelected 1994 (+29.5)
See the full Illinois governor timeline and every election since 1952 →

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