2026 governor races › Iowa

Iowa Governor Race 2026: Sand vs. Lahn

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 22, 2026

Tilt DOpen seat

Open seat; Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking re-election.

Candidates

  • Rob Sand Democrat Nominee, state auditor Running mate: Dave Muhlbauer
  • Zach Lahn Republican Nominee, farmer Running mate: Derek Wulf

Where the race stands

The RealClearPolling average has Sand (D) 50.7, Lahn (R) 44.0 (Sand +6.7) across six polls, ranging from Sand +4 to +10. The newest, from co/efficient (Oct. 15 to 19), has Sand up 4. Markets agree: Polymarket has Sand at about 88 percent, and Kalshi has Democrats at about 87 percent.
2026 governor races
Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
  • Solid D
  • Very Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
  • Tilt R
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Very Likely R
  • Solid R
  • No race

Analysis

With Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) not seeking another term, Iowa is a top Democratic opportunity. Zach Lahn (R), a Belle Plaine farmer backed by the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, won the nomination over Trump’s pick, Rep. Randy Feenstra. He has said Iowa must find out “what Big Ag and Big Pharma knew about the safety of their products,” and he now calls for eliminating the personal income tax and, longer term, property taxes on primary homes. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) has raised a record $37.8 million this cycle; Lahn’s largest donor, the Republican Governors Association, has given Lahn $15.5 million. Sand is running on government reform and a top-four open primary. He would also redirect private-school voucher money for wealthier families to universal pre-K, undo Medicaid privatization by executive order, and legalize, tax, and regulate adult-use cannabis. Their first two debates centered on money and the budget. In the first, Sand hit Lahn for voting in Kansas, noting he registered in Iowa less than two years ago, and called him a “change of address candidate,” while Lahn called Sand a “radical liberal” and accused him of using family wealth to spread lies about him. His ads hit Sand’s family money, and KCRG found his relatives have given his campaigns $13.1 million since 2018, and PolitiFact rated False his debate claim that tax cuts Sand criticized save a family of four $7,500 a year (it put the savings nearer $3,500). In the second, Sand pledged a 5 percent K-12 increase in his first year, paid for partly by ending data center tax breaks and taxing cannabis, while Lahn favored school “innovation zones” and phonics over more spending; both want to end the data center breaks. Sand pulled out of the third debate, which had been set for October 21 on Iowa PBS, after his brother-in-law was struck and killed by a vehicle; the campaigns said they would work on a new date. A Make America Healthy Again super PAC announced $1.5 million for Lahn’s campaign. Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race Lean Democratic.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

Iowa governors since 1991

Republicans have held the office since 2011. The last Democrat was Chet Culver (2007–2011).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Kim Reynolds R · 2017–present · 2 terms + partial
    Succeeded to office 2017, elected 2018 (+2.7), reelected 2022 (+18.5)
  2. Terry Branstad R · 2011–2017 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+9.6), reelected 2014 (+21.7), resigned 2017
  3. Chet Culver D · 2007–2011 · 1 term
    Elected 2006 (+9.6), lost reelection 2010
  4. Tom Vilsack D · 1999–2007 · 2 terms
    Elected 1998 (+5.8), reelected 2002 (+8.2)
  5. Terry Branstad R · 1983–1999 · 4 terms
    Elected 1982 (+6.3), reelected 1986 (+3.9), reelected 1990 (+21.8), reelected 1994 (+15.2)
See the full Iowa governor timeline and every election since 1956 →

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