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Minnesota Governor Race 2026: Klobuchar vs. Demuth

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 22, 2026

Very Likely DOpen seat

Open seat; Gov. Tim Walz (D) is not seeking a third term.

Candidates

  • Amy Klobuchar Democrat Nominee, U.S. senator Running mate: Ben Schierer
  • Lisa Demuth Republican Nominee, state House speaker Running mate: Ryan Wilson
  • Steven Young Green Green nominee Running mate: Jane Kirby

Where the race stands

The RealClearPolling average has Klobuchar (D) 48.7, Demuth (R) 40.3 (Klobuchar +8.4, three polls). Prediction markets give Democrats about 95 percent on Polymarket and 95 percent on Kalshi. The Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll of likely voters has Klobuchar ahead 50 to 41.
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Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
  • Solid D
  • Very Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
  • Tilt R
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  • Likely R
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Analysis

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) faces House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R), the first all-woman major-party race for governor in Minnesota history, so the state will elect its first woman governor. Steven Young (G) is also on the ballot. Klobuchar's running mate is former Fergus Falls Mayor Ben Schierer; Demuth's is attorney Ryan Wilson, who narrowly lost the 2022 state auditor race. Klobuchar is running on lowering health care costs, shoring up rural hospitals threatened by federal Medicaid cuts, and a full audit of state government. Demuth wants to cut income and business taxes, roll back the paid family and medical leave mandate she calls "a tax on every business," and hold agency commissioners accountable for program fraud. Fraud and public safety now dominate the race: both back a gang violence task force, but Klobuchar wants her state audit to start immediately under an independent leader, while Demuth proposes an anti-fraud task force led by Wilson and would prioritize police in state aid to cities. The two met at a Chamber of Commerce forum in Brainerd on October 19 and in a debate hosted by Fox 9 in Rochester on October 21. There, Klobuchar said the state needs "a governor who is not a rubber stamp of Donald Trump," and Demuth said Klobuchar had never "come up with a policy that she disagrees with Tim Walz on." Klobuchar had $3.5 million on hand in mid-September to Demuth's $618,000, but the pro-Demuth super PAC Restore Sanity had already spent more than $4.3 million for her and $2.7 million against Klobuchar. Markets treat Klobuchar as a heavy favorite.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

Minnesota governors since 1991

Democrats have held the office since 2011. The last Republican was Tim Pawlenty (2003–2011).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Tim Walz D · 2019–present · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+11.4), reelected 2022 (+7.7)
  2. Mark Dayton D · 2011–2019 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+0.4), reelected 2014 (+5.6)
  3. Tim Pawlenty R · 2003–2011 · 2 terms
    Elected 2002 (+7.9), reelected 2006 (+1.0)
  4. Jesse Ventura REF · 1999–2003 · 1 term
    Elected 1998 (+2.7)
  5. Arne Carlson R · 1991–1999 · 2 terms
    Elected 1990 (+3.4), reelected 1994 (+29.2)
See the full Minnesota governor timeline and every election since 1954 →

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