2026 governor races › New Mexico

New Mexico Governor Race 2026: Haaland vs. Hull

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Very Likely DOpen seat

Open seat; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited.

Candidates

  • Debra Haaland Democrat Nominee, ex-U.S. Interior Secretary Running mate: Stephanie Garcia Richard
  • Gregg Hull Republican Nominee, ex-Rio Rancho mayor Running mate: David Gallegos

Where the race stands

The RealClearPolling average has Haaland (D) 48.0, Hull (R) 41.5 (Haaland +6.5, two polls). The Albuquerque Journal poll by Research & Polling has Haaland ahead 49 to 42, and a KOB-TV/SurveyUSA poll had her up 47 to 41. Prediction markets give Democrats about 94 percent on Polymarket and 94 percent on Kalshi.
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Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
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Analysis

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited, leaving an open seat. Deb Haaland (D), the former U.S. Interior Secretary, would be the first Native American woman elected governor. She has talked openly about past struggles with alcoholism and reliance on government assistance, and has vowed to overhaul the state's child welfare system and "take on Donald Trump." Gregg Hull (R), the former three-term mayor of fast-growing Rio Rancho, points to his record there as a governing blueprint and promises to attract large employers to a state whose poverty is among the nation's highest and whose wages are among the lowest; he argues that the last eight years under one-party control "have failed."

The race has barely moved since summer: Haaland's lead in the Journal poll is essentially unchanged from August, and pollster Brian Sanderoff says Hull is still struggling with name recognition. Money is lopsided: Haaland has raised a record $19.2 million to roughly $2.5 million for Hull, and Trump has not endorsed Hull. A Democratic Governors Association-backed committee is airing TV ads tying Hull to President Trump, and no conservative group has yet come to his aid. The only debate both sides had agreed to, on KOB-TV, went ahead with Hull beside an empty lectern after Haaland's campaign cited a scheduling conflict.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

New Mexico governors since 1991

Democrats have held the office since 2019. The last Republican was Susana Martinez (2011–2019).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Michelle Lujan Grisham D · 2019–present · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+14.4), reelected 2022 (+6.4)
  2. Susana Martinez R · 2011–2019 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+6.7), reelected 2014 (+14.4)
  3. Bill Richardson D · 2003–2011 · 2 terms
    Elected 2002 (+16.4), reelected 2006 (+37.6)
  4. Gary Johnson R · 1995–2003 · 2 terms
    Elected 1994 (+9.9), reelected 1998 (+9.1)
  5. Bruce King D · 1991–1995 · 1 term
    Elected 1990 (+9.5), lost reelection 1994
See the full New Mexico governor timeline and every election since 1956 →

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