Open seat; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited.
Candidates
- Debra Haaland Democrat Nominee, ex-U.S. Interior Secretary Running mate: Stephanie Garcia Richard
- Gregg Hull Republican Nominee, ex-Rio Rancho mayor Running mate: David Gallegos
Where the race stands
- Solid D
- Very Likely D
- Lean D
- Tilt D
- Toss-up
- Tilt R
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Very Likely R
- Solid R
- No race
Analysis
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is term-limited, leaving an open seat. Deb Haaland (D), the former U.S. Interior Secretary, would be the first Native American woman elected governor. She has talked openly about past struggles with alcoholism and reliance on government assistance, and has vowed to overhaul the state's child welfare system and "take on Donald Trump." Gregg Hull (R), the former three-term mayor of fast-growing Rio Rancho, points to his record there as a governing blueprint and promises to attract large employers to a state whose poverty is among the nation's highest and whose wages are among the lowest; he argues that the last eight years under one-party control "have failed."
The race has barely moved since summer: Haaland's lead in the Journal poll is essentially unchanged from August, and pollster Brian Sanderoff says Hull is still struggling with name recognition. Money is lopsided: Haaland has raised a record $19.2 million to roughly $2.5 million for Hull, and Trump has not endorsed Hull. A Democratic Governors Association-backed committee is airing TV ads tying Hull to President Trump, and no conservative group has yet come to his aid. The only debate both sides had agreed to, on KOB-TV, went ahead with Hull beside an empty lectern after Haaland's campaign cited a scheduling conflict.
The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.
New Mexico governors since 1991
Democrats have held the office since 2019. The last Republican was Susana Martinez (2011–2019).
Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.
- Elected 2018 (+14.4), reelected 2022 (+6.4)
- Elected 2010 (+6.7), reelected 2014 (+14.4)
- Elected 2002 (+16.4), reelected 2006 (+37.6)
- Elected 1994 (+9.9), reelected 1998 (+9.1)
- Elected 1990 (+9.5), lost reelection 1994