New York Governor Race 2026: Hochul vs. Blakeman

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is favored for a full second term in blue New York against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R). Her lead in the Siena poll has held steady at about ten points, 49 to 39 in August and 50 to 41 in September, though the map is uneven: she leads 61 to 27 in New York City, the downstate suburbs are close, and Blakeman leads upstate 47 to 44. By 51 to 30, likely voters said Trump's backing would hurt Blakeman, while half said Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement would help Hochul. Cost of living is the top issue in Quinnipiac's polling. At their only debate, Blakeman blamed Hochul for rising utility rates, cashless bail, and sanctuary policies, while Hochul said "ICE is out of control" in Nassau County and blamed Trump both for tariffs that raise farmers' costs and for blocking New York energy projects. Medicaid has since become a flashpoint: a Hochul ad featuring Mamdani replays Blakeman saying "we make sure we cut Medicaid in half," a line he denied at the debate.