2026 governor races › New York

New York Governor Race 2026: Hochul vs. Blakeman

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Solid DIncumbent: Kathy Hochul (D)

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is seeking a full second term.

Candidates

  • Kathy Hochul Democrat Incumbent Running mate: Adrienne E. Adams
  • Bruce Blakeman Republican Nominee, Nassau County executive Running mate: Todd Hood

Where the race stands

No RealClearPolling average for this race. Prediction markets give Democrats about 95 percent on Polymarket and 94 percent on Kalshi. Recent likely-voter polls have Kathy Hochul (D) ahead of Bruce Blakeman (R) by 9 points in Siena (50 to 41), 12 in Emerson (52 to 40), and 19 in Quinnipiac (58 to 39).
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Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
  • Solid D
  • Very Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
  • Tilt R
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Very Likely R
  • Solid R
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Analysis

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is favored for a full second term in blue New York against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R). Her lead in the Siena poll has held steady at about ten points, 49 to 39 in August and 50 to 41 in September, though the map is uneven: she leads 61 to 27 in New York City, the downstate suburbs are close, and Blakeman leads upstate 47 to 44. By 51 to 30, likely voters said Trump's backing would hurt Blakeman, while half said Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsement would help Hochul. Cost of living is the top issue in Quinnipiac's polling. At their only debate, Blakeman blamed Hochul for rising utility rates, cashless bail, and sanctuary policies, while Hochul said "ICE is out of control" in Nassau County and blamed Trump both for tariffs that raise farmers' costs and for blocking New York energy projects. Medicaid has since become a flashpoint: a Hochul ad featuring Mamdani replays Blakeman saying "we make sure we cut Medicaid in half," a line he denied at the debate.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

New York governors since 1991

Democrats have held the office since 2007. The last Republican was George Pataki (1995–2006).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Kathy Hochul D · 2021–present · 1 term + partial
    Succeeded to office 2021, elected 2022 (+6.4)
  2. Andrew Cuomo D · 2011–2021 · 3 terms
    Elected 2010 (+29.3), reelected 2014 (+13.9), reelected 2018 (+23.4), resigned 2021
  3. David Paterson D · 2008–2010 · partial term
    Succeeded to office 2008
  4. Eliot Spitzer D · 2007–2008 · 1 term
    Elected 2006 (+41.6), resigned 2008
  5. George Pataki R · 1995–2006 · 3 terms
    Elected 1994 (+2.4), reelected 1998 (+21.3), reelected 2002 (+16.4)
  6. Mario Cuomo D · 1983–1994 · 3 terms
    Elected 1982 (+8.1), reelected 1986 (+33.1), reelected 1990 (+32.4), lost reelection 1994
See the full New York governor timeline and every election since 1958 →

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