Open seat; Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is term-limited.
Candidates
- Mike Mazzei Republican Former state senator and Gov. Stitt's budget secretary
- Cyndi Munson Democrat State House minority leader
- Jerry Griffin Independent
- Orlando Lynn Bush Independent
- Robert E Brooks Sr Independent
Where the race stands
- Solid D
- Very Likely D
- Lean D
- Tilt D
- Toss-up
- Tilt R
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Very Likely R
- Solid R
- No race
Analysis
Mike Mazzei (R) remains the favorite to keep Oklahoma's governorship in Republican hands, where it has been since 2011, but the open race has drawn more attention than expected. The Cook Political Report moved it from Solid to Likely Republican on October 13, after reports of private Democratic polling showing a competitive race, and our consensus rating moved to Very Likely Republican. Mazzei's campaign answered that Republicans win 97.7 percent of races Cook rates Likely Republican.
Mazzei, a financial planner and former state senator who chaired Senate Finance, served as Gov. Kevin Stitt's budget secretary and won the nomination with Trump's endorsement. He would phase out the individual income tax over six years and end property taxes for seniors and veterans, paying for it with a DOGE-style efficiency office and cuts to tax rebates, credits, and exemptions. Cyndi Munson (D), the state House minority leader, is running on public school funding and teacher pay, repealing the private-school tax credit, targeted tax relief instead of broad income tax cuts, a state question to overturn the abortion ban, and a moratorium on new data centers; she argues his plan would leave the state without money for services. In their only scheduled debate, aired October 1, Mazzei defended a Trump-backed aluminum smelter planned for Inola whose tax breaks he had first criticized.
Mazzei has put more than $11 million of his own money into the race, and the Republican Governors Association has spent over $2 million on ads backing him. Jerry Griffin (I), Robert E. Brooks Sr. (I), and Orlando Lynn Bush (I) are also on the ballot.
The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.
Oklahoma governors since 1991
Republicans have held the office since 2011. The last Democrat was Brad Henry (2003–2011).
Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.
- Elected 2018 (+12.1), reelected 2022 (+13.7)
- Elected 2010 (+20.9), reelected 2014 (+14.8)
- Elected 2002 (+0.7), reelected 2006 (+33.0)
- Elected 1994 (+17.3), reelected 1998 (+16.9)
- Elected 1990 (+24.8)