Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is seeking a second term.
Candidates
- Tina Kotek Democrat Incumbent
- Christine Drazan Republican Nominee, state senator
- Brett Smith Green Pacific Green nominee
Where the race stands
- Solid D
- Very Likely D
- Lean D
- Tilt D
- Toss-up
- Tilt R
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Very Likely R
- Solid R
- No race
Analysis
Gov. Tina Kotek (D) faces a rematch with state Sen. Christine Drazan (R), her rival in the 2022 race. Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982, but Kotek is unpopular: the OPB poll put her favorability at just 38 percent, to 45 percent for Drazan. Polling released in early October was the first public polling to show Kotek ahead, after a string of shrinking Drazan leads. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Lean Democratic, while Pluribus News still has it Likely Democratic.
Drazan has spent the campaign hammering Kotek for raising state spending without improving outcomes on homelessness, housing, and education, and she promises to fix "what's broken" in the state. Kotek counters that Drazan would roll over for the Trump administration on immigration, abortion, and mail-in voting. At the final of three debates, in Bend, Kotek pointed to housing bills Drazan voted against, while Drazan called for an overhaul of the state's land-use system and argued that rural Oregonians cannot afford the governor's agenda, citing the gas tax fight. At the earlier Medford debate, both opposed a sales tax and said they would push for a moratorium on new data centers.
Oregon lets a candidate accept more than one party's nomination, so each also appears on a second ballot line: Drazan as the Libertarian nominee and Kotek as the Working Families nominee. Brett Smith (G), the Pacific Green nominee, could draw votes from Kotek's left. Betsy Johnson, the nonaffiliated former state senator who took under 10 percent in 2022, is not running, and there are competing interpretations of whom her absence helps. Kotek also has the money edge: as of late September she had $8.3 million on hand, more than eight times Drazan’s $965,000. The race has drawn neither a Trump endorsement nor significant spending by the Republican Governors Association, a contrast with 2022, when the group treated Drazan as a priority pickup.
The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.
Oregon governors since 1991
Democrats have held the office since 1987. The last Republican was Victor Atiyeh (1979–1987).
Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.
- Elected 2022 (+3.4)
- Succeeded to office 2015, elected 2016 (+7.2), reelected 2018 (+6.4)
- Elected 2010 (+1.5), reelected 2014 (+5.8), resigned 2015
- Elected 2002 (+2.9), reelected 2006 (+8.0)
- Elected 1994 (+8.5), reelected 1998 (+34.4)
- Elected 1990 (+5.8)