Pennsylvania Governor Race 2026: Shapiro vs. Garrity

Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) is a heavy favorite for a second term. A Quinnipiac poll of likely voters (Oct. 1 to 5) put his job approval at 63 percent and had him leading 59 to 34, with independents backing him 62 to 23. His opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R), is a retired Army Reserve colonel who has centered her message on natural gas drilling ("unleash the liquid fuel that we have at our feet") and on casting Shapiro as a careerist. At their only debate, the two split on taxing skill games, the slot-style gaming machines: Shapiro backs a 52 percent tax matching the rate on slots, while Garrity favors a $500 monthly fee per machine. Garrity also faulted Shapiro for never delivering the $250 gas-tax rebate he promised in 2022. Ken Krawchuk (L) is also on the ballot but was not invited to the debate. Shapiro also has a large money edge, with $19.8 million on hand in mid-September to just over $1.3 million for Garrity. The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Pluribus News all rate the race Solid Democratic, so the open question is the size of his margin.