2026 governor races › South Dakota

South Dakota Governor Race 2026: Rhoden vs. Ahlers

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Solid RIncumbent: Larry Rhoden (R)

Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) is seeking a full term.

Candidates

  • Larry Rhoden Republican Incumbent Running mate: Tony Venhuizen
  • Dan Ahlers Democrat Nominee, former state legislator Running mate: Steven McCleerey

Where the race stands

There is no RealClearPolling average. The South Dakota Poll by Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center (Oct. 12 to 14) has Rhoden (R) ahead 56 to 36 over Ahlers (D). Prediction markets give Republicans about 98 percent on Polymarket and 98 percent on Kalshi.
2026 governor races
Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
  • Solid D
  • Very Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
  • Tilt R
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Very Likely R
  • Solid R
  • No race

Analysis

Gov. Larry Rhoden (R), a western South Dakota rancher, became governor in early 2025 after serving as Kristi Noem's lieutenant governor, and he won the Republican nomination in the state's first-ever gubernatorial runoff. He now seeks a full term against Dan Ahlers (D), a small business owner and former legislator from Dell Rapids. Rhoden runs on what he calls "the largest property tax cut in the history of the state"; Ahlers says more state money for schools would ease local property taxes, and he wants local governments to have more say over where data centers are built. Ahlers leads among independents in the News Watch poll, but 35 percent of voters did not recognize his name, against 1 percent for Rhoden.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

South Dakota governors since 1991

Republicans have held the office since 1979. The last Democrat was Harvey Wollman (1978–1979).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Larry Rhoden R · 2025–present · partial term
    Succeeded to office 2025
  2. Kristi Noem R · 2019–2025 · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+3.4), reelected 2022 (+26.8), resigned 2025
  3. Dennis Daugaard R · 2011–2019 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+23.0), reelected 2014 (+45.0)
  4. Mike Rounds R · 2003–2011 · 2 terms
    Elected 2002 (+14.9), reelected 2006 (+25.6)
  5. Bill Janklow R · 1995–2003 · 2 terms
    Elected 1994 (+14.8), reelected 1998 (+31.2)
  6. Walter Dale Miller R · 1993–1995 · partial term
    Succeeded to office 1993, lost renomination 1995
  7. George S. Mickelson R · 1987–1993 · 2 terms
    Elected 1986 (+3.6), reelected 1990 (+17.8), died in office 1993
See the full South Dakota governor timeline and every election since 1954 →

Continue Exploring

All 2026 governor races →
Ratings, candidates and analysis for all 36 races
South Dakota 2026 elections →
Every race on the ballot, legislature to statewide offices
South Dakota governors →
Past governors and election history
South Dakota 2026 results →
Every race on the ballot, live on election night
South Dakota 2024 results →
The last election, race by race