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Tennessee Governor Race 2026: Blackburn vs. Green

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Solid ROpen seat

Open seat; Gov. Bill Lee (R) is term-limited.

Candidates

Where the race stands

No RealClearPolling average for this race. The most recent public poll, a TargetSmart survey of 600 likely voters released September 17, had Blackburn (R) 45, Green (D) 36, David Hatley (I) 10, and Lauren Pinkston (I) 2. It was paid for by a PAC whose only candidate so far is Green; an August Beacon Center poll had Blackburn up 55 to 34. Markets give Blackburn about 94 percent on Polymarket and Republicans 93 percent on Kalshi.
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Analysis

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) faces Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green (D) for the seat term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R) is leaving, so the winner will be Tennessee's first female governor. Thirteen independents are also on the ballot, among them businessman David Hatley (I), who says he will spend up to $20 million of his own money, and former Lipscomb University professor Lauren Pinkston (I).

Blackburn is running on economic growth and tax cuts, immigration enforcement, women's sports, and public safety. Her most specific state-level idea is a "bell to bell, no cell" ban on student phones for the whole school day, beyond the instructional-time limit in the 2025 state law. She has declined to debate; her campaign said "I'm not going to give air to a socialist candidate"; Green's campaign proposed four dates and says she will show up either way.

Green is running on raising the minimum wage to at least $20 an hour, ending the grocery sales tax by closing corporate loopholes and Lee's corporate tax rebate program, expanding Medicaid to protect rural hospitals, and defunding the school voucher program in her first budget. On energy, Blackburn backs small modular reactors at Oak Ridge and fossil fuels, while Green wants a statewide data center moratorium. A Blackburn win would open her U.S. Senate seat, and she plans to choose her replacement once she is governor.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

Tennessee governors since 1991

Republicans have held the office since 2011. The last Democrat was Phil Bredesen (2003–2011).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Bill Lee R · 2019–present · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+21.0), reelected 2022 (+32.0)
  2. Bill Haslam R · 2011–2019 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+32.0), reelected 2014 (+47.5)
  3. Phil Bredesen D · 2003–2011 · 2 terms
    Elected 2002 (+3.1), reelected 2006 (+38.9)
  4. Don Sundquist R · 1995–2003 · 2 terms
    Elected 1994 (+9.6), reelected 1998 (+39.1)
  5. Ned McWherter D · 1987–1995 · 2 terms
    Elected 1986 (+8.5), reelected 1990 (+24.2)
See the full Tennessee governor timeline and every election since 1952 →

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