Vermont Governor Race 2026: Scott vs. Janoo

Gov. Phil Scott (R), a moderate Republican whom Morning Consult ranked the most popular governor in the country as recently as February, has held deep-blue Vermont since 2016 and won each of his last three races by more than 40 points. Democrats nominated Amanda Janoo (D), an economist and political outsider who had never run for office. Scott calls this his toughest race since 2016, citing Democratic enthusiasm, and argues the Legislature's "knee-jerk to every problem was the solution of more taxes, more burden." In the State Navigate poll, 57 percent approve of his job performance, well above his ballot share. Polls have historically understated him: since 2016, pre-election polls have placed his support about 14 points below his final vote share, on average. The Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid to Likely Republican on October 13, matching Sabato's Crystal Ball; Pluribus News still rates it Solid Republican, which keeps the consensus of the three ratings at Very Likely Republican.

Janoo is running on universal primary care, paid for by a surcharge on household income above $250,000, plus steep tax hikes on second homes and short-term rentals. She outraised Scott in September, $291,000 to $223,000. The Republican Governors Association has stepped in for Scott, giving $400,000 to a super PAC that spent nearly $463,000 in the first half of October. In their October 21 Vermont Public debate, Janoo pressed her primary care plan, and Scott answered that Vermont does not have many rich people to tax: "One person makes a billion dollars, and when that’s gone, that’s gone." Three other candidates are also on the ballot.