2026 governor races › Wyoming

Wyoming Governor Race 2026: Barlow vs. Casner

General election November 3, 2026 · Updated October 19, 2026

Solid ROpen seat

Open seat; Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is not seeking a third term.

Candidates

  • Eric Barlow Republican Nominee, state senator, former House speaker, Gillette rancher and veterinarian
  • Kenneth Casner Democrat Nominee, third-generation Wyoming resident
  • Rebecca Bextel Constitution Constitution Party nominee, Jackson business owner

Where the race stands

No RealClearPolling average for this race. Prediction markets give Republicans about 98 percent on Polymarket and 98 percent on Kalshi.
2026 governor races
Alaska: Tilt DAlabama: Very Likely RArkansas: Solid RArizona: Lean DCalifornia: Solid DColorado: Solid DConnecticut: Solid DDE: no governor race in 2026Florida: Lean RGeorgia: Toss-upHawaii: Solid DIowa: Tilt DIdaho: Solid RIllinois: Solid DIN: no governor race in 2026Kansas: Lean RKY: no governor race in 2026LA: no governor race in 2026Massachusetts: Solid DMaryland: Solid DMaine: Very Likely DMichigan: Lean DMinnesota: Very Likely DMO: no governor race in 2026MS: no governor race in 2026MT: no governor race in 2026NC: no governor race in 2026ND: no governor race in 2026Nebraska: Likely RNew Hampshire: Likely RNJ: no governor race in 2026New Mexico: Very Likely DNevada: Tilt RNew York: Solid DOhio: Toss-upOklahoma: Very Likely ROregon: Lean DPennsylvania: Solid DRhode Island: Very Likely DSouth Carolina: Solid RSouth Dakota: Solid RTennessee: Solid RTexas: Likely RUT: no governor race in 2026VA: no governor race in 2026Vermont: Very Likely RWA: no governor race in 2026Wisconsin: Tilt DWV: no governor race in 2026Wyoming: Solid R AKALARAZCACOFLGAIAIDILINKSKYLAMEMIMNMOMSMTNCNDNENMNVNYOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWIWVWY
  • Solid D
  • Very Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Tilt D
  • Toss-up
  • Tilt R
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Very Likely R
  • Solid R
  • No race

Analysis

In the reddest state in the country, November is a formality, so the live question is how state Sen. Eric Barlow (R), a former House speaker, would govern. Barlow, a Marine veteran and Gillette veterinarian who chairs the Senate Labor, Health and Social Services Committee, ran on public lands, education funding, and health care access. His general-election pitch adds a "Healthcare Strike Team" early in his term, keeping public lands "in public hands," and regional governor's offices so communities weigh in before decisions are made. He would govern alongside a legislature tilting back toward traditional Republicans: the Wyoming Freedom Caucus lost 13 House incumbents this year and, with about ten reliable votes left, has likely lost the power to block bills in a budget session, when a bill needs a two-thirds vote just to be introduced. Kenneth Casner (D) and Rebecca Bextel (Constitution) are also on the ballot. At the lone televised debate, Bextel aimed nearly every answer at Barlow. The candidates split on Proposition 1, a residential property tax exemption: Barlow opposes the measure, citing local services and the relief the Legislature already passed; Bextel opposes property taxes altogether; and Casner did not take a position.

The rating is MultiState's consensus, the average of the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Pluribus News. Polling is the RealClearPolling average where one exists.

Wyoming governors since 1991

Republicans have held the office since 2011. The last Democrat was Dave Freudenthal (2003–2011).

19911995200020052010201520202025

Each block is one governor; thin lines mark a reelection. Margins are the winner's lead over the runner-up, in points.

  1. Mark Gordon R · 2019–present · 2 terms
    Elected 2018 (+39.6), reelected 2022 (+58.2)
  2. Matt Mead R · 2011–2019 · 2 terms
    Elected 2010 (+42.7), reelected 2014 (+32.1)
  3. Dave Freudenthal D · 2003–2011 · 2 terms
    Elected 2002 (+2.0), reelected 2006 (+40.0)
  4. Jim Geringer R · 1995–2003 · 2 terms
    Elected 1994 (+18.5), reelected 1998 (+15.1)
  5. Mike Sullivan D · 1987–1995 · 2 terms
    Elected 1986 (+7.9), reelected 1990 (+30.7)
See the full Wyoming governor timeline and every election since 1954 →

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