Elections & Campaigns
Post-Election Analysis: Expected Red Wave Turns Blue
November 9, 2022 | Bill Kramer
Post-Election Results & Analysis
After the elections, Democrats flipped gubernatorial seats in Maryland, Massachusetts, and Arizona, while Republicans defeated the Democratic incumbent in Nevada. This nets Democrats 2 additional governor’s seats in 2023, with a likely total of 26 Republican governors to 24 Democratic governors. Out of 28 incumbents running for reelection this cycle, Nevada Gov. Sisolak (D) was the only one to lose reelection.
Pre-Election Preview
Current Partisan Breakdown of State Governors
Governor is a statewide elected office in all 50 states and serves as the chief executive officer of a state. Currently, Republicans hold governorships in 28 states compared to Democrats’ 22 governorships.
States with Gubernatorial Elections in 2022
On November 8, 2022, gubernatorial seats in 36 states are up for election. Of these, 20 are currently held by Republicans and 16 are currently held by Democrats. The map below shows forecasts for the 2022 gubernatorial elections. Forecasts provided by cnalysis.
Races to Watch
Keep a close eye on the gubernatorial races in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Wisconsin all rated as toss-ups by the state elections forecasters cnalysis. Additionally, the races in Maine, New Mexico, Kansas, and Pennsylvania are expected to be close.
Toss-Ups
Most of the races forecast as toss-ups or slight leans are positions currently held by Democrats, including Nevada, Oregon, Maine, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Only one race forecast as a toss-up — Arizona — is currently held by Republicans. If the electorate skews towards Republicans in November, Democrats could see their control of 22 governorships shrink substantially.
Potential Party Flippers
Forecasters expect the two gubernatorial seats in dark-blue Maryland and Massachusetts, currently held by popular but term-limited moderate Republicans, to flip back to Democratic control. And Republicans are slightly favored to win back the governor’s mansion in Kansas from incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly.
Primary Elections: Dates and Results
The chart below lays out the primary dates and the victors (once available) in major party primaries for the 36 gubernatorial races. Asterisk (*) indicated incumbent.
Additional Resources and Analysis
Visit our 2022 State Elections Toolkit for additional information on all of the state executive and legislative seats up for election this year, handy downloadable resources, and analysis of the potential impact on the partisan makeup of state governments.