2025 Legislative Session Dates
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Key Takeaways:

  • Virginia and New Jersey hold gubernatorial elections in November with open seats in both states, representing the primary off-year elections that often serve as political bellwethers for the following year's larger election cycles.
  • Virginia could flip to a Democratic trifecta if Spanberger defeats Earle-Sears, potentially bringing total trifecta states near the record 40 from 2024, while New Jersey is expected to maintain Democratic control.
  • Though only 2.4% of state lawmakers are up for election nationwide, these races carry outsized political significance as forecasters use them to predict party performance in 2026's 36 gubernatorial and 88 legislative chamber elections.
  • Current forecasting suggests Democratic over-performance due to Trump's approval numbers, with Virginia's potential trifecta flip being the most consequential outcome for future policy directions.


Elections in odd-numbered years are not quite as exciting as even-numbered years when the U.S. House, a third of the U.S. Senate, dozens of governors, and thousands of state legislators are up for election (and sometimes we get bonus governor races in Kentucky and Louisiana), but they’re still important thanks to Virginia and New Jersey sticking to an odd year election cycle. This year, both Virginia and New Jersey have open governor seats in their elections this November. All members of the House are up for election this year in both New Jersey (80 members) and Virginia (100 members), but members of the Senate are not, representing only 2.4% of the 7,386 state lawmakers across the country. 

The headlines will be the governor races. And with the primaries now behind us, we know that former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) will battle for the one-term governorship in Virginia and after a crowded and expensive primary, former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli (R) and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) will face off to replace term-limited Gov. Murphy (D) in New Jersey.



Virginia's High-Stakes Gubernatorial Race: Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears

Virginia will certainly be the most interesting and consequential of the two. Democrats currently hold a slim majority in the House (51-49) as well as the Senate (21-19), but Gov. Youngkin (R) keeps Virginia a split state politically. If Abigail Spanberger (D) can defeat Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in November and gain the governor’s mansion next year, Democrats will have captured a new political trifecta. At this point in the race, that is the most likely outcome, which would bring trifecta states back to a near record number of 39 (there were 40 trifecta states in 2024). At this point in political forecasting, Democrats are also expected to expand their lead in the Virginia House of Delegates this November. 


New Jersey Governor's Race: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli Rematch

In New Jersey, Democrats are expected to keep their solid lead (52-28) in the House, and Mikie Sherrill (D) is the favorite to replace Gov. Murphy (D), although Jack Ciattarelli (R) came within two points of defeating Murphy in 2021. This should allow Democrats to retain their trifecta in the Garden State. 




Why Off-Year Elections Matter for 2026 Predictions

We’re still a long way out from November, and much can still change, but the current mood of forecasters is to assume that Democrats will overperform this year, partly as a reflection of President Trump’s low approval numbers. Conversely, political forecasters often use the Virginia and New Jersey elections, along with any special elections, as an indicator of how political parties may fare in the following year’s larger election cycle. In addition to the Congressional midterm elections, 2026 will see at least 36 gubernatorial and 88 of the 99 state legislative chambers up for elections. Will we see one-party control in the states increase or decrease in 2026?


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This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on June 24, 2025. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.