Key Takeaways:
- The 2026 gubernatorial elections will feature 18 open gubernatorial seats, marking a notable increase in competitive races compared to previous cycles.
- Minnesota governor race 2026 is now open after Gov. Walz announced he will not seek reelection, with U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar expected to be a leading Democratic contender.
- Incumbent governor reelection rates have reached record highs in recent years, making open seats especially important for party control and electoral dynamics.
- With half of the 36 states holding open gubernatorial seats in 2026, expect a major shift in state executive leadership across the country.
Minnesota Governor Walz Announces Retirement Creating New Open Seat
On Monday, Minnesota Gov. Walz (D) announced that he would not run for reelection this year. This reverses his announcement last September that he would in fact run for a third term. U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is the favorite to enter the governor’s race and replace Walz as the Democratic frontrunner for governor. The primary in Minnesota isn't until August 11, 2026 (with a June 2 filing deadline), only three months before the general election on November 3.
2026 Gubernatorial Election Landscape Shows Record Number of Open Seats
Gov. Walz’s announcement ticks the number of open gubernatorial seats up for election in November to 18, which is half of the 36 states electing a governor this year. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is the only other incumbent governor who is not term-limited to announce that she won't seek a third term. As of now, that means that in 2026, we’ll have 19 states with incumbent governors running for reelection, 15 states where the current governor is term-limited, and two states where the incumbent governor is eligible for reelection but has opted to retire instead.
Historical Context of Open Gubernatorial Seats and Incumbent Success Rates
Recent Election Cycles Show Varying Patterns of Open Seats
In 2024, more than half of the gubernatorial elections were for open seats, when only three of ten races had incumbents running for reelection. That was a bit of an anomaly, especially since it was a lower number of states seeing governor elections that year. In 2022, only eight of the 36 gubernatorial elections were for open seats, while a full 28 incumbents were running for reelection that year. Of course, in 2025 we had two open seats for the governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey. All of that is to say that we’re going to have a major refresh of faces leading the executive branch of most states this time next year.
Incumbent Governor Reelection Success Rates Reach Historic Highs
Additionally, the number of open seats is important because of the growing success rate that incumbent governors have enjoyed at the ballot box. Incumbent governors went from a 70% reelection success rate between 1950 and 1980, to 80% between 1980 and 2013, to 90% from 2013 to 2020. Since 2020, only one of 40 incumbent governors has lost a reelection bid (97.5%). The lone defeat since 2020 came when Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) lost to Joe Lombardo (R) in 2022. So in addition to a lot of new faces in governors’ mansions next year, we’re also likely to see more competitive races in 2026 with this many open seats. We’ll be watching the open races in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan very closely.
Every year is an election year for the states, but now that it’s officially 2026, get ready for the biggest election season since 2022. MultiState will remain your go-to resource for everything state elections, so keep an eye on this space along with some additional dashboards, maps, and other resources we’ll be rolling out throughout the year.
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This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on December 6, 2025. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.