New York is one of the top 10 states most likely to see a flip in party control of one state legislative chamber on Election Day in November. Democrats are unlikely to lose their grip on the state assembly, where the party maintains a supermajority with 104 of 150 seats. In the
To flip the
The case for Republican control of the Senate is complicated by several announced retirements, including Senators John DeFrancisco (R), John Bonacic (R), Kathleen Marchione (R), Bill Larkin (R), and Tom Croci (R). Both Croci’s District 3 and Bonacic’s District 42 voted for Trump, by a margin of +6 and +5.2 respectively, though Democrats hold over 8,000 more registered voters in each district.
New Yorkers will also select their governor on November 6. New York does not impose term limits on governors, permitting incumbent Andrew Cuomo (D) to run for a third term. On September 13, Cuomo will face a primary challenge from the left in Cynthia Nixon (D), a former Sex and the City actor and activist. Far-left Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D) primary win in the U.S. House could energize more Democratic voters to draw closer to Nixon’s own progressive camp. Regardless, Nixon will need to overcome, at