2026 Legislative Session Dates
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Key Takeaways:

  • Democrats have flipped four state legislative seats in special elections so far in 2026, running an average of 11.5 points higher than their 2024 presidential performance.
  • Democratic special election performance in early 2026 mirrors trends from 2018, though special election margins typically moderate as general elections approach.
  • If current trends held through November, Democrats could flip multiple chambers and gain hundreds of state legislative seat flips, though 2026 midterm election predictions based solely on special elections should be viewed cautiously.
  • The 2018 midterms showed that while strong special election performance is directionally useful, Democrats' early 18-point margin eventually moderated to 2 points before they netted 308 seats in November.


Democrats have been significantly over-performing in special state legislative elections both last year and in 2026. But what does that actually mean for November, when 6,143 state legislative seats will be up for grabs?

Democratic Special Election Performance in 2025 and 2026

So far, Democrats have flipped four state legislative seats in special elections in 2026 after flipping seven such seats in 2025. On average (technically, the median), Democratic candidates are running 11.5 points higher than they did during the 2024 presidential election.

How do we know that? We ran the numbers using MultiState’s new Elections Hub, which you can use to track upcoming elections, look back at decades of election history in the states, and download your favorite MultiState maps. Check it out!

Potential Impact on November 2026 General Elections

So, what do these special election trends mean for November? Democrats are outrunning their 2024 margins by ‌an average of 11.5 points in this year’s specials. That’s huge. In fact, if that actually held, and every Democrat ran 11.5 points ahead in November, they'd capture 756 net seats, flip 12 legislative chambers, and gain 5 new trifectas. That’s an even bigger swing than Republicans’ 720 net seat gain in the 2010 midterms, the largest wave election in the states of the modern era. Will that actually happen? Only time will tell, but likely not. For one, special elections are just different from generals. The turnout is dramatically lower, and the sample size of special elections is small.

Lessons from 2018 Special Election Trends

But an even bigger cautionary tale is 2018. During that midterm election year, Democrats were also riding high on big special election wins. From January through April 2018, Democrats were surpassing their 2016 presidential margin in state legislative special elections by 18.1 points — even larger than this year’s 11.5 margin.

But as the year dragged on and the general election approached, voters began to moderate. During the latter part of 2018, Democrats saw their margin shrink to only 2 points across 10 special elections from May through October. Overall, though, Democrats still carried a 14.5-point median swing into the fall, and went on to net 308 state legislative seats and flip 6 chambers in November. Not bad, but maybe not what someone looking at that 14.5 spread would have hoped. (Take a look at our old article, “Democrats Chip Away at Republican Domination in the States”.)

What Special Elections Can Tell Us About November

Taking into account how a political party is doing in special elections during a big election year is directionally useful, even if it’s not precisely predictive. Democrats are ‌on track to make gains in November. However, a lot can happen between now and Election Day, and in 2026, that is especially true. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the remaining special elections this year to see if that 11.5 point margin is rising or falling as we approach the general election. That margin can still tell us a lot. You can see a full, detailed breakdown of this research here and follow along with us at MultiState’s Elections Hub this summer.

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