Why Chicago's Budget Crisis Matters for the City's Mayoral Race

In May, Mayor Brandon Johnson’s (D) Chicago Financial Future Task Force published its final report providing recommendations on how to solve the city’s persistent revenue imbalance. The recommendations include expanding the sales tax to services (a misguided effort to raise revenue), acquiring the authority to impose a graduated income tax, imposing congestion pricing, and adjusting property taxes according to inflation. The task force might make it seem like the budget fight is just getting started, but in reality, it never actually ended.

The tensions between the mayor and the Chicago City Council stem from last year’s contentious budget cycle. After the mayor submitted his proposed budget, which included a corporate head tax, the city council formed a counterweight and assembled an alternative budget of their own, which excluded the head tax. With the mayor losing support in the city council, the alternative budget was passed. Instead of vetoing it, the mayor allowed the budget to take effect without his signature.

Chicago's Current Budget Crisis

Unrealized Revenue Streams and Implementation Delays

The effects of last year’s budget fight can be felt. For starters, alternative revenue streams that the city council included in the budget, like the Social Media Amusement Tax, have failed to collect any funds. Opponents of the mayor, such as the Budget Accountability Coalition, blame him for failing to execute the budget’s provisions: “Instead of executing the financially sound budget that City Council passed last year, Mayor Johnson and his administration have spent six months slow-walking the implementation of new revenues.”

Leadership Changes and Future Fiscal Hurdles

The fiscal hurdles will likely continue into the next year where the task force estimates that the city will face a budget gap of $680 million. Additionally, Mayor Johnson appointed Ashlee Gabrysch as the city’s new Chief Financial Officer after the abrupt departure of Steven Mahr. This follows the city’s Budget Director Annette Guzman announcing her departure as well.

Implications for the 2027 Mayoral Election

The mayor has until October 15 to submit his proposed budget. By the look of things, this budget fight may be Johnson’s last. While the mayor has not publicly announced whether he will run again, a recent poll concluded that the mayor’s approval rating sits at 23 percent. With Johnson potentially on the way out, the city council has little reason to cooperate with him.

As of now there are nine announced mayoral candidates including early favorite Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias (D). While who will be the next mayor is unclear, what’s abundantly clear is that the next mayor will have their work cut out for them.

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