State Trifecta Control Could Shift Dramatically in 2026 Elections

We’re five weeks out from Election Day. And while most of the national media attention is on the congressional stakes, this is a big election year for the states. On the ballot November 3, 2026:

• 6,139 state legislative seats up across 46 states (88 of 99 legislative chambers);
• 36 governor seats up this year with at least 19 of those being open seats;
• 31 lieutenant governor elections (19 open seats);
• 30 attorney general elections (11 open seats);
• 26 secretary of state elections (13 open seats); and
• 164 statewide ballot measures certified this year.

State Trifecta Control and the 2026 Election Landscape

But for state government affairs professionals, the biggest potential shift is in trifecta control. That is, which political party controls both the legislature and the governor’s mansion? We're near historic highs for the number of states under one-party control. Currently, Republicans control 23 state trifectas and Democrats hold 16 trifectas, leaving only 11 states with divided control. That’s 39 trifectas today, only down one trifecta from the modern-day high of 40 states in 2024.

How a Wave Election Could Shift State Political Control

But will that number go up or down in 2027? And in what way might the political control map shift? To understand what a “wave” election would look like where either political party overperforms expectations, we assume that any legislative chamber or governor election rated competitive (i.e., toss-up, tilt, or lean) is won by the “wave” party, and then look at what the trifecta map would look like in the aftermath. We use an averaged rating from three gubernatorial forecasters (Cook, Sabato’s, and Pluribus) and the legislative chamber ratings are from Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

As always, note that this is a hypothetical exercise and not a prediction. Every state’s political environment and candidates are different, and thus an over-performance of one party nationwide is unlikely to hit each state at the same magnitude. Nonetheless, it’s a fun exercise and shows which states are in play next month. Using that definition, nine governor races are in play (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin), along with thirteen legislative chambers in seven states (Arizona, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

Potential Outcomes in a Democratic or Republican Wave

Many forecasters and politicos are expecting a Democratic wave election in 2026. If Democrats overperform at the polls and win all the competitive legislative chambers and governor elections, we would see a significant shift in political power in the states as Democrats would gain new trifectas in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by flipping five governor seats as well as nine legislative chambers. This would give Democrats 22 trifectas in 2027, which would be the first time they held more trifecta states than Republicans since the 2010 wave election.

Not every state has the same quality or quantity of polling, so it’s often easy to get caught up in some outlier polls. But recent polls seem to put additional governor races in play for Democrats. So if we want to be super generous to the Democrats’ chances next month, we could even flip the governor seats in Texas, Florida, and New Hampshire. Under this scenario, the first two would break up Republican trifectas and the last one would complete a full trifecta flip from Republican to Democratic. Last week, there was even a poll showing Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) — the most popular governor in the country and rated a “Safe R” election — vulnerable to a Democratic challenger (if this were to happen, though unlikely, it would give Democrats yet another trifecta in 2027). If several of those flips took place, this would qualify as a true wave election for Democrats, harking back to 2010 for Republicans.

But perhaps the polls are wildly wrong and an influx of last-minute campaign spending boosts Republicans in the states. In a scenario where Republicans win all the competitive chambers and governor elections, we’d see them shoring up their trifecta lead by gaining four new trifectas in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, and Wisconsin by flipping four governorships and five legislative chambers. Of those, we expect the Kansas trifecta to return to the GOP even in a good year for Democrats. For the full details of this wave analysis, read our “2026 Sweep Scenarios” page.

What to Watch as Election Day Approaches

Either of these extreme scenarios would mean new all-time highs for one-party control states. In the Democratic wave hypothetical, we’d have 41 trifecta states. And in the Republican wave hypothetical, we’d see 42 trifecta states. Most likely, we’ll see something between these two extremes, but we’ll have to wait another five weeks to find out. In the meantime, track the latest polling, forecasts, and seats up for election in the states using MultiState’s elections hub.

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