Elections & Campaigns
Post-Election Analysis: Expected Red Wave Turns Blue
November 9, 2022 | Bill Kramer
Post-Election Results & Analysis
Currently, Democrats have flipped both chambers of the Michigan Legislature, the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House. Democrats are poised to gain at least 4 state legislative chambers, but we could see that total increase or decrease depending on who gains the majority in the uncalled New Hampshire House.
Pre-Election Preview
Current Partisan Breakdown of State Legislatures
A total of 7,383 lawmakers make up 99 legislative chambers in the 50 state legislatures. These range from the 49-seat unicameral legislature in Nebraska to New Hampshire’s 400-seat house. Collectively, these legislators introduce nearly a quarter of a million bills per session, turning some 30,000 into new state laws.
Currently, Republicans control 30 state legislatures and Democrats control 17 state legislatures. Legislative control occurs when the same party controls both chambers of the legislatures in states with two chambers. A split legislature is one in which different political parties control the senate and the house — this is the case in three states.
States with Legislative Elections in 2022
On November 8, 2022, 6,166 legislative seats in 46 states are up for election. That’s 84 percent of all state lawmakers (and special elections for vacant seats will increase that number). Of the 99 state legislative chambers, 88 will hold elections in 2022. Of the 46 states with legislative elections in 2022, 16 are controlled by Democrats, 28 are controlled by Republicans, and two are split government. Only four states don’t have any legislative elections (house or senate) in 2022 — Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
State Senate Elections in 2022
Senators in 43 states are up for election in 2022. The entire membership of 20 state senate chambers are up for election, while only a portion of the senate is up for election in the remaining 23 state senate chambers. Forecasts provided by cnalysis.
State House Elections in 2022
House lawmakers in 45 states are up for election in November. The entire lower chamber is up for election in 44 of the state house chambers, while only 66 of 94 seats of the North Dakota House of Representatives is up for election this year.
Races to Watch
According to forecaster cnalysis, states to keep an eye on where a potential political flip of a legislative chamber could occur include both chambers in Maine, Minnesota, Michigan, and Oregon. Also watch the house in Alaska, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Washington. Of these vulnerable chambers, Democrats are playing defense to protect their control in 10 of the 16 chambers. The 6 chambers where Republicans are defending majorities are the Senate in Arizona and Minnesota, the Pennsylvania House, the always volatile, 400-seat New Hampshire House, and both chambers of the Michigan Legislature, which is largely due to the independent redistricting commission drawing a more competitive map.
Additional Resources and Analysis
Visit our 2022 State Elections Toolkit for additional information on all of the state executive and legislative seats up for election this year, handy downloadable resources, and analysis of the potential impact on the partisan makeup of state governments.