State Impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025
image/svg+xml Skip to main content
Search image/svg+xml
Home
/
Insider
/
•••

Key Takeaways:

  • New Jersey's gubernatorial race features U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) against former Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli (R), who narrowly lost to the current governor in 2021. Despite Ciattarelli's potential as a change candidate, analysts rate the race as "Leans Democratic," with Democrats expected to maintain their 52-28 Assembly majority.
  • Virginia's governor's race between former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) has shifted dramatically in Democrats' favor. Analysts recently upgraded the race from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic," with projections showing a 97% chance of Spanberger winning.
  • A Democratic victory in Virginia would create a new trifecta, giving the party control of both the legislature and governor's mansion for the first time since 2021. This would significantly impact the 2026 legislative session and bring the nation closer to a record number of state trifectas.
  • Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority in Virginia's House of Delegates, but projections suggest a 93% chance of retaining control with an expected gain of 7 seats. There's even a 14% possibility of achieving a supermajority requiring 67 of the 80 total seats.


Both New Jersey and Virginia will hold gubernatorial elections in 2025. Every seat in the Virginia (100 seats) and New Jersey (80 seats) lower chambers will be up for election in November. 


New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli

In New Jersey, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) and former state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli (R) face off to replace term-limited Governor Phil Murphy (D). Ciattarelli narrowly lost to Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial election, but 2021 was a very different political environment than today. 

The elections experts at Sabato's Crystal Ball see the New Jersey gubernatorial election as more competitive than the governor’s race in Virginia this year. They argue that Ciattarelli can run as a “change candidate.” But we're not sure how well that holds in an open seat with a GOP President that’s underwater in the polls. Nonetheless, they still see Sherrill as the favorite to keep the governor’s seat in Democratic hands in New Jersey, rating the seat as a “Leans Democratic.” It would certainly be a major upset if Ciattarelli could pull off the win, and notably, a Republican victory would break up the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey. The Democrats currently hold a 52 to 28 seat majority in the New Jersey Assembly, a majority that they are expected to maintain after November’s elections. 



Virginia Governor's Race: Democrats Favored for Pickup

Odd-numbered year elections tend to focus on Virginia because its purple state reputation and proximity to DC make for a nice storyline to lead into the national elections that take place in the following even-numbered election year.

Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears: Shifting Race Dynamics

This year’s marquee governor’s race pits former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) against Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) to replace term-limited Governor Glenn Youngkin (R). Virginia is unique as it only allows governors to serve one consecutive 4-year term.

What was expected to be a close race is now a big pickup opportunity for the Democrats in Virginia. Polls have consistently found Spanberger with a lead over Earle-Sears. Sabato's Crystal Ball recently moved the race’s rating from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.” And Chaz Nuttycombe’s State Navigate team projects that the Democrats are “overwhelming favorites” to win both the governor’s mansion as well as retain their majority in the House of Delegates. Despite some recent polls showing her lead diminishing slightly, State Navigate’s projections forecast a 97% chance of Spanberger becoming the next governor of Virginia. This is significant because it would give Democrats a new trifecta, and would allow them to control the legislature and the governor’s seat for the first time since 2021. Which would put us back near a record number of trifectas in 2026. 



Virginia House of Delegates Projections

State Navigate has also released detailed forecasts for the Virginia House of Delegates, where all 80 seats will be up for election, with Democrats currently controlling a narrow 51 to 49-seat majority. State Navigate currently projects that Democrats have a 93% chance of keeping their majority in the chamber and are likely to pick up 7 additional seats, which would bring their total to a 58-seat majority in 2026. State Navigate even has a 14% chance that Democrats will gain a supermajority in the House, which would require 67 seats. 

The State Navigate projections are more optimistic for Democrats than Sabato’s, but Nuttycombe specializes in state legislative elections and has a particular specialty for Virginia state politics. So they’re worth taking seriously. The anticipation for elections in both states is rising, with implications both for next year’s legislative sessions as well as an early indication of the mood of voters heading into the 2026 midterm elections. 


Sign Up for Morning MultiState

This article appeared in our Morning MultiState newsletter on September 9, 2025. For more timely insights like this, be sure to sign up for our Morning MultiState weekly morning tipsheet. We created Morning MultiState with state government affairs professionals in mind — sign up to receive the latest from our experts in your inbox every Tuesday morning. Click here to sign up.