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Tax & Budgets
What You Need to Know About State Fiscal Outlook in This Fall
September 24, 2026 | Andrew Jones
Most states are in stable fiscal condition heading into fall 2026, with 27 states maintaining positive fiscal outlooks and less likely to face immediate budget pressures. Twelve states including Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, and Tennessee have conditional fiscal outlooks, meaning their revenue health requires monitoring and could shift toward either challenges or stability depending on policy decisions. Ten states face serious short-term budget challenges, including California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey, though many have seen projected deficits decrease due to higher than anticipated consumer spending and market returns. State revenue forecasts have improved across the country this year, with many states outperforming estimates and reducing previously projected deficits while increasing surplus projections.
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