Elections & Campaigns
Democrats' Special Election Edge Still Points to a Big Year (Democratic Wave?)
October 14, 2026 | Bill Kramer
Democrats overperformed their 2024 presidential margins by a median of 10.4 points in state legislative special elections from January through April 2026, and that advantage held at 10 points through the remaining special elections. Unlike 2018, when Democratic overperformance in special elections dropped sharply in the second half of the year, the 2026 state legislative special elections showed sustained momentum through October. Based on historical patterns, Democrats could overperform 2024 margins by six to nine points in November, potentially netting 424 to 593 state legislative seats in 2026. Professional forecasters project Democrats will gain roughly 403 legislative seats this cycle, which would approach the party's 2018 wave election when they netted 308 seats and picked up seven governorships.
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